Palm Bay, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

404
FXUS62 KMLB 070700
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

- Hot and very humid conditions with scattered daily lightning
  storms into early next week.

- Hazy skies this weekend due to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL).

- A Moderate Risk for rip currents continues at area beaches
  through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

This Weekend...High pressure ridging continues across the south-
central FL peninsula, with dominant SW/W flow "backing" along the
coast in the afternoon, but w/o much penetration inland due to the
dominant WRLY flow. Aloft, mid-level ridging expands across the Gulf
and across the southern FL peninsula. 500 mb temps remain
unimpressive at -6C to -7C with lapse rates modest at best. Going
with below seasonal PoP numbers this weekend (and well below NBM -
continue to blend in CONSALL values), 30pct this afternoon/evening
and perhaps as high as 40pct for north Brevard northward on Sun.
ISOLD to WDLY SCT convection may develop in the afternoon along the
(nearly) pinned ECSB and perhaps slightly higher chances as the WCSB
interacts with the ECSB and any other outflow boundaries late in the
day and early evening. Most of the activity will diminish or move
off of the coast by around mid-evening. Primary storm impacts remain
wind gusts of 30-40 mph (but up to 50 mph if storms can take
advantage of drier air aloft), occasional to frequent lightning
strikes, and locally heavy rainfall.

Temps remain very warm with conditions humid as maxes realize L-
M90s, with peak heat indices of 98-103F. Overnight mins continue
in the L-M70s.

Mon-Fri...The surface ridge continues to push further seaward from
mid to late week, with the associated ridge axis drifting northward.
As such, the ECSB should be able to penetrate further inland from
Tue onward as the overall flow becomes ESE/SE nearly areawide and
daily sea breeze collisions will be well into the interior. W/SW
storm steering weakens Mon/Tue, then becomes light to variable on
Wed, then SERLY Thu/Fri. The WRLY flow in the mid-levels weakens
by Wed with weak mid-level ridging building back toward the FL
peninsula from the western Atlc. A few mid-level impulses will
traverse the north-central peninsula early in the period, but
generally remain north. Continue to undercut the absurd NBM PoP
numbers down to 50-60pct which, too, could also be generous. High
temps remain hot through at least Tue, before a more dominant
east coast sea breeze develops into mid-late week. Highs
remaining in the L-M90s early in the week, then U80s to L90s Wed-
Fri. Overnight mins continue in the L-M70s. Peak heat indices
98-105F remain forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Today-Wed...Continued generally favorable boating conditions
through mid-week next week, as high pressure ridging remains
across the south-central FL peninsula. The main threat will be
scattered offshore-moving showers and lightning storms each
afternoon and evening. South to southwesterly flow will back
southeasterly along the coast each afternoon and increase to 10-15
kts as the east coast sea breeze develops, but remains pinned
close to the coast through early next week. Seas 1-3 ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 155 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Light W to SW flow through
sunrise will increase around 10 knots with some gusts 15-17 knots
developing in the afternoon. This will produce a small crosswind
issue at MCO and also delay the sea breeze a bit from forming then
reaching the coastal terminals. Have followed GFS LAMP and NBM MOS
both showing no sea breeze at DAB. Other coastal terminals should
see a SE wind shift by 20Z. Mainly dry conds forecast today with
low prob of SHRA mainly assocd with the sea breeze near the coast
late in the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  73  94  72 /  30  10  40  10
MCO  93  74  94  74 /  30  10  30  10
MLB  92  74  91  74 /  30  10  30  20
VRB  92  72  92  74 /  30  20  20  10
LEE  93  75  92  74 /  30  10  30  10
SFB  94  74  94  74 /  30  10  30  10
ORL  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  30  10
FPR  92  72  91  73 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly